Eurasia

What are the main obstacles to the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, and how do regional and international dynamics impact the process?  The peace deal’s delay stems from Azerbaijan’s demand for constitutional changes in Armenia, border tensions, and the call to dissolve the Minsk Group. Regional factors, such as Türkiye’s conditions and Russia’s shifting focus, hinder swift resolution. Unresolved issues and external factors could postpone the agreement until 2026.

Will the CSTO have a future as a relevant organization? We see a history of inaction, Russia maintains a leadership role within the organization and its current priorities are elsewhere, we have seen member states question the organization. Although the organization is unlikely to disappear, its fragmentation and decline will create room for regional instability and the emergence of security challenges.

What does the current energy crisis in Moldova reveal about the role of Russian hybrid warfare in its EU accession path? Russian hybrid warfare plays a significant role in hindering the EU accession process,  for which the energy crisis reveals tactics such as the weaponization of energy and false narratives. The current energy crisis reveals that Russian hybrid warfare aims to destabilise the country and influence the upcoming parliamentary elections in Russia's favour.

Georgia is at the brink of an abyss, with the illegitimate Georgian Dream government consolidating their power through rigged elections, pro-Russian laws, and severe suppression of the European identity of Georgians. Mass protests erupted after halting EU accession. The government’s violent crackdown led to over 400 arrests and brutality toward protesters and journalists. Georgia’s fate depends on international pressure.

1. What is the current state of international climate negotiations? 2. The increasing tensions between western states and other actors, such as Russia, China and the Oil States, make climate negotations more and more difficult. It becomes more and more unlikely that states will be able to agree on substantial future achievements at COP negotiations.

In the upcoming Russian presidential elections, President Putin is expected to portray himself as the unchallenged leader, maintaining his dominance over the Russian state.

Bulgaria's ongoing political instability reflects deep divisions and challenges to coherent national governance.

Russia outproduces the EU in arms, leveraging a wartime economy, while the EU struggles with limited production capacity, posing future conflict risks despite higher equipment quality.

Georgia's new foreign agents law labels NGOs with significant foreign funding as working for foreign powers, harming its EU accession prospects and drawing criticism for being anti-democratic.

Mongolia is an attractive partner to diversify partnerships of European countries. Its raw materials and strategic location make it valuable.

The Axis of Rogues undermines the Western-led order. Iran and North Korea arm Russia in its Ukraine invasion, while China strengthens ties with Russia.

In this briefing, we look at the question of EU -Enlargement to Ukraine and check if Kyiv fulfills the Copenhagen Criteria.

Following 2022 sanctions, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan helped Russia bypass restrictions on dual-use goods, leading to tighter US and EU countermeasures.

The Temporary Protection Directive (TPD) was activated for the first time in 2022 for Ukrainian refugees. While effective, its temporary nature raises concerns.